ABD federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Kongre’deki b\u00fct\u00e7e anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle 1 Ekim’de kapanmas\u0131 25’inci g\u00fcn\u00fcne girerken, bu durum \u00fclke ekonomisiyle ilgili baz\u0131 kritik resmi verilerin ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011frat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS), haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131na dair verilerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 3 Ekim’de yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunu da a\u00e7\u0131klayamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon verilerinden de sorumlu olan BLS, ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7in planlanan \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 pas ge\u00e7erken, t\u00fcketici enflasyonu verilerini gecikmeli olarak d\u00fcn yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re ABD’de T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE), eyl\u00fclde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,3, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda artt\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fken enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermeyen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Karoline Leavitt, verilere ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, enflasyonun ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n ekonomi politikas\u0131 sayesinde piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, “H\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih eden Demokratlar, muhtemelen ekim ay\u0131 enflasyon raporunun yay\u0131nlanmamas\u0131na neden olacak ve bu da i\u015fletmeleri, piyasalar\u0131, aileleri ve Fed’i karga\u015faya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alternatif veriler piyasaya \u0131\u015f\u0131k tuttu<\/strong><\/p>\n Resmi verilerinin yoklu\u011funda ADP Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fclkedeki \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131na ili\u015fkin raporu ve Challenger, Gray & Christmas’\u0131n i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalara y\u00f6nelik raporu gibi alternatif yay\u0131nlarda istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131n durumuna ili\u015fkin i\u015faretler arand\u0131.<\/p>\n ADP’nin raporuna g\u00f6re ABD’de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131, eyl\u00fclde art\u0131\u015f beklentilerinin aksine 32 bin ki\u015filik azal\u0131\u015f kaydetti. ABD merkezli i\u015fverenlerin duyurdu\u011fu i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 da bu y\u0131l ocak-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde 946 bin 426 ile 2020’den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n Fed’in Bej Kitap gibi kendi saha raporlar\u0131 t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n son haftalarda hafif geriledi\u011fini ortaya koydu. BLS’nin son yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriye g\u00f6re ABD’de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam a\u011fustosta 22 bin ki\u015fi artarak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,2’den y\u00fczde 4,3’e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Fed yetkilileri risk dengesine i\u015faret etti<\/strong><\/p>\n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, ge\u00e7en hafta bir etkinlikte yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapanmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla baz\u0131 verilerin yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131n\u0131n gecikti\u011fini ancak eyalet d\u00fczeyindeki i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve ADP gibi verilere bakt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n \u0130stihdama y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkati \u00e7eken Powell, bunun risk dengesi hakk\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlendirmeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n Powell, istihdam ve enflasyon hedefleri aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi y\u00f6netirken, politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risksiz bir yol olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Di\u011fer Fed yetkilileri aras\u0131nda da enflasyonun hala hedefin \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flama aras\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir denge kurulaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 olmas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n Baz\u0131 yetkililer enflasyonun hala y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve faiz indiriminin riskli oldu\u011funu savunurken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama nedeniyle “temkinli faiz indirimleri” istiyor.<\/p>\n Trump taraf\u0131ndan Fed y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyeli\u011fine ge\u00e7en ay atanan Stephen Miran ise faizlerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu gerek\u00e7esiyle daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimlerine gidilmesine s\u0131cak bak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Fed’in temkinli duru\u015funa devam etmesi bekleniyor<\/strong><\/p>\n Analistler, \u00f6nemli ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, Fed’in ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmesini ve politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirlemesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Fed’in 28-29 Ekim tarihlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda karar s\u00fcrecini belirsizlik i\u00e7inde b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden analistler, Fed’in “veri karanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda” muhtemelen temkinli duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini kaydediyor.<\/p>\n Analistler, piyasalarda politika faizinin oran\u0131n\u0131n 25 baz puan indirilerek y\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesinin beklendi\u011fini belirterek, kapanman\u0131n daha da uzamas\u0131 durumunda aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha da kritik olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n “T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden az artmas\u0131, faiz indirimi i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yak\u0131yor”<\/strong><\/p>\n Oxford Economics ABD Ba\u015fekonomist Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Michael Pearce, AA muhabirine konuya ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, “Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha az artmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta faiz indirimi i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yak\u0131yor.” ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Ancak enflasyonun gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 2’den \u00e7ok y\u00fczde 3’e yak\u0131n seyredece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret eden Pearce, bu nedenle piyasan\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi beklentilerinin “\u00e7ok agresif” g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulad\u0131.\u00a0Pearce, “Fed’in gev\u015feme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in gelecek y\u0131l boyunca \u00fc\u00e7 faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.” dedi.<\/p>\n Tarifelerin hala mal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fine de\u011finen Pearce, g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin man\u015fet enflasyona 0,4 puanl\u0131k bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ettiklerini bildirdi.<\/p>\n Pearce, “Fed’i son haftalarda i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fti\u011fine ikna edecek veri bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta faiz indirimi kesin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ekonomiye y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler azald\u0131k\u00e7a, enflasyon riskleri gelecek y\u0131l Fed’in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerinde daha a\u011f\u0131r basacak ve bu da daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir faiz indirim h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karacakt\u0131r.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n “\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc”<\/strong><\/p>\n American Enterprise Institute (AEI) k\u0131demli uzman\u0131 Steven Kamin de verilerin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesine ra\u011fmen y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3 oran\u0131ndaki enflasyonun hala Fed’in y\u00fczde 2 olan hedefinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n D\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir bu hedefin tutturulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na de\u011finen Kamin, tarife kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yolda olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya enflasyon beklentilerinin istikrarl\u0131 kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirsizli\u011fini korudu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Kamin, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc talebinin zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n artmamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeninin de i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n Herkes gibi Fed’in gelecek hafta yeniden faiz indirimine gitmesini bekledi\u011fini kaydeden Kamin, “Bu, ‘zarar vermeme’ ad\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir karar olacak, zira enflasyon kontrolden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Kapanman\u0131n yak\u0131nda sona ermesi ve verilerin yeniden yay\u0131mlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 durumunda Fed aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda stratejisini yeniden de\u011ferlendirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 bulacakt\u0131r.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n “Fed’in oda\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flayan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na kayd\u0131”<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch Ratings ABD Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Olu Sonola da son enflasyon verisinin Fed i\u00e7in bir rahatlama kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve muhtemelen gelecek hafta faiz indirimi yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeyece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n Sonola, “Garip g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Fed \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay boyunca enflasyonun y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131ndan memnun olacak. G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131 genel olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, oda\u011f\u0131n zay\u0131flayan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n Gelecek hafta faiz indiriminin “sigorta” ama\u00e7l\u0131 yap\u0131labilece\u011fini belirten Sonola, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Fed’in istihdam verilerine dair daha net bir tabloya sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131n umut edildi\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n Sonola, Fed’in ADP’nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verilerine ve eyaletlerdeki i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verileri gibi alternatif verilere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verece\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, ADP verilerinin eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda i\u015f kay\u0131plar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini, eyalet bazl\u0131 verilerin ise nispeten daha istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n\n <\/p>\n Kaynak :\u00a0http:\/\/www.milliyet.com.tr\/ekonomi\/fed-gelecek-haftaki-politika-toplantisi-oncesi-sinirli-veriyle-yon-ariyor-7470954<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD’de federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131 (Fed), gelecek hafta yapaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda baz\u0131 kritik verilerden mahrum b\u0131rak\u0131rken, Fed’in belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen 25 baz puan faiz indirimine gitmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":131655,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[49,3611,3051,2638,3305],"class_list":["post-131654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz-indirimi","tag-istihdam","tag-risk","tag-verilerin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=131654"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131654\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":131656,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131654\/revisions\/131656"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/131655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=131654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=131654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=131654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}