Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC), ekimde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi 25 baz puanl\u0131k indiriminin ard\u0131ndan 9-10 Aral\u0131k’ta yapaca\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizinin seyrine karar verecek.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkilileri, gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da, ABD’deki h\u00fck\u00fcmet kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 verilerle para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 alacak.<\/p>\n
ABD tarihinin en uzun s\u00fcreli h\u00fck\u00fcmet kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n 12 Kas\u0131m’da sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan kurumlar veri takvimini g\u00fcncellerken, kapanma s\u00fcrecinde baz\u0131 veriler toplanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekim ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin istihdam raporu ile T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) gibi kritik veriler yay\u0131mlanamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te resmi kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan gecikmeli olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin veriler ile \u00f6zel kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan alternatif veriler yak\u0131ndan takip edildi.<\/p>\n
\u2060\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin veriler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k geldi<\/strong><\/p>\n A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verse de son gelen alternatif g\u00f6stergeler istihdamdaki zay\u0131flamaya dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n verilerine g\u00f6re, ABD’de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam eyl\u00fclde 119 bin ki\u015fi artarak beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,3’ten 4,4’e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verileri de ABD’de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurusunda bulunanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 29 Kas\u0131m ile biten haftada 191 bine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 2022’den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini kaydetti.<\/p>\n ADP Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan bu hafta yay\u0131mlanan veriler ise \u00fclkede \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklentilerinin aksine 32 bin ki\u015fi azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Bu, Mart 2023’ten bu yana \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131ndaki en y\u00fcksek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olarak kaydedildi.<\/p>\n Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi Challenger, Gray & Christmas taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan veriler de ABD merkezli i\u015fverenlerin duyurdu\u011fu i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kas\u0131mda \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla azalsa da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 24 art\u0131\u015fla 71 bin 321’e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ortaya koydu. \u0130\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar, y\u0131l\u0131n 11 ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 54 artarak toplam 1 milyon 170 bin 821’e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n Enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri beklentilerle uyumlu<\/strong><\/p>\n ABD’de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bu yana enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin ise daha az veri elde edildi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re, ABD’de \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE), eyl\u00fclde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,3, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,7 artarak beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n ABD Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcn yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler de Fed’in enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olarak dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerji kalemlerinin hesaplama d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tutuldu\u011fu \u00e7ekirdek ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksinin eyl\u00fclde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,8 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n Ayl\u0131k bazda beklentiler do\u011frultusunda artan endeksin, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,9 y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. \u00c7ekirdek ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi, a\u011fustosta ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,9 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Ayr\u0131ca Michigan \u00dcniversitesi taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi aral\u0131kta 5 ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk kez y\u00fckselirken, enflasyon beklentilerinin geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n T\u00fcketicilerin k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentisi, aral\u0131kta y\u00fczde 4,5’ten 4,1’e inerek ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini kaydetti. Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentisi de y\u00fczde 3,4’ten 3,2’ye geriledi.<\/p>\n Fed yetkilileri “\u015fahin” ve “g\u00fcvercin” olarak ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n Fed’in 28-29 Ekim’de d\u00fczenledi\u011fi son toplant\u0131da, 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi karar\u0131 2’ye kar\u015f\u0131 10 oyla al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Stephen Miran 50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indiriminden yana olurken, Kansas City Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeffrey Schmid ise politika faizinin sabit tutulmas\u0131ndan yana oy kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n \u015eahin Fed yetkilileri enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda faiz indirimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karak daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken g\u00fcvercinler, zay\u0131flayan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek faiz indirimlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini istiyor.<\/p>\n FOMC’nin ekim ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tutanaklar\u0131 da Fed yetkililerinin faiz indirimleri konusunda b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor. Tutanaklarda, “Toplant\u0131da bir\u00e7ok yetkili federal fon oran\u0131 i\u00e7in hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden yanayd\u0131, baz\u0131lar\u0131 bu karar\u0131 desteklemekle birlikte sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 da destekleyebilirdi, birka\u00e7\u0131 ise hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131yd\u0131.” ifadeleri yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Analistler, FOMC \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda belirsizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, en iyi senaryonun karar\u0131n oy birli\u011fiyle verilmesi oldu\u011funu ifade ediyor. Ancak bu sonucun \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini belirten analistler, birka\u00e7 \u00fcyenin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi kat\u0131 tutuma i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n Beklentiler faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine kayd\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell’\u0131n ekim ay\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, aral\u0131kta faiz indiriminin kesin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 bu ay politika faizinin sabit tutulabilece\u011fi fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Powell, “Komitenin bu toplant\u0131daki tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda nas\u0131l ilerlenece\u011fi konusunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler vard\u0131. Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizinde daha fazla indirim yap\u0131lmas\u0131 kesin de\u011fil, bundan olduk\u00e7a uzak. Politika \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f bir rotada de\u011fil.” ifadelerini kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Fed Kansas City \u015eubesi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve FOMC \u00dcyesi Schmid de ekimde faiz indirimine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6nde oy kullanmas\u0131na gerek\u00e7e olarak enflasyona dair endi\u015feleri g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Schmid, “Benim de\u011ferlendirmeme g\u00f6re i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dengede, ekonomi ivmesini koruyor ve enflasyon hala \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.” diyerek politika faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyi uygun buldu\u011funu bildirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n Ge\u00e7en ay New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams’\u0131n i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadede faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in alan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesi ve baz\u0131 di\u011fer Fed yetkililerinden gelen benzer y\u00f6ndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131nda ise 25 puanl\u0131k faiz indirimine dair fiyatlamalar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n “Zay\u0131flayan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 odakta kal\u0131rsa faiz indirimi gerek\u00e7esini destekler”<\/strong><\/p>\n Fitch Ratings ABD Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Olu Sonola, AA muhabirine, d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 verilerinin geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olsa da iki iyi haberi i\u00e7erdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fini ve beklentilerle uyumlu oldu\u011funu belirten Sonola, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yatay seyreden t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ise 3’\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2,7’lik sa\u011flam bir art\u0131\u015f kaydederek 2’nci \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 2,5’lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n Sonola, ABD t\u00fcketicisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, tarifeler sonras\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve zay\u0131f g\u00fcvene ra\u011fmen, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nemli bir dayana\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n Olu Sonola, “Fed\u2019in gelecek haftaki karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, odak \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir ortamda zay\u0131flayan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederse, bu muhtemelen faiz indirimi gerek\u00e7elerini destekler.” dedi.<\/p>\n “Son veriler ocak ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in soru i\u015faretleri yaratt\u0131”<\/strong><\/p>\n ING Amerika Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00f6lgesel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Padhraic Garvey de i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yayg\u0131n kan\u0131ya ra\u011fmen, verilerin ABD ekonomisinin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n Challenger, Gray & Christmas’\u0131n ABD’deki i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalara dair raporunun kas\u0131mda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu\u011funa de\u011finen Garvey, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verilerinin ise i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n nispeten sa\u011flam oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeye devam etti\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n Garvey, d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 verilerinin geriden gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131n genel olarak diren\u00e7 izlenimi verdi\u011fini, enflasyon beklentilerinin de azalm\u0131\u015f olsa da y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmaya devam etti\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n Gelecek hafta Fed’in faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 95 seviyesinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen Garvey, “Yani faiz indirimi olacak. Bu haftaki verilerin en b\u00fcy\u00fck etkisi, Fed’in ocak ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi yap\u0131p yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair soru i\u015faretleri yaratmas\u0131 oldu.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n “\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler var”<\/strong><\/p>\n American Enterprise Institute (AEI) k\u0131demli uzman\u0131 Steven Kamin de istihdam verilerinin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, “\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirsiz ancak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin oldu\u011funu belirtmek isterim.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n Gecikmeli yay\u0131mlanan enflasyon verilerine de de\u011finen Kamin, eyl\u00fclde \u00e7ekirdek ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,8 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek bir oran oldu\u011funu, ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ise Fed’in beklentileriyle uyumlu oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n Kamin, “Riskli istihdam tablosu ve enflasyonda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n olmamas\u0131, Fed’e \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta faizleri 25 baz puan daha indirmek i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu mazereti verecek.” dedi.<\/p>\n\n <\/p>\n Kaynak :\u00a0http:\/\/www.milliyet.com.tr\/ekonomi\/fed-yilin-son-para-politikasi-toplantisina-gorus-ayriliklariyla-giriyor-7496838<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), gelecek hafta yap\u0131lacak y\u0131l\u0131n son para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 veriyle giderken, yetkililer aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na ra\u011fmen 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":150110,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[431,49,8485,211,728],"class_list":["post-150109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-enflasyon","tag-fed","tag-is","tag-veri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150109"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150109\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":150111,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150109\/revisions\/150111"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/150110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}