{"id":152837,"date":"2025-12-11T05:12:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T05:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/?p=152837"},"modified":"2025-12-11T05:12:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T05:12:07","slug":"merkez-bankasi-faiz-karari-bugun-belli-oluyor-kredi-ve-mevduatlarla-ilgili-yeni-tahmin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/2025\/12\/11\/merkez-bankasi-faiz-karari-bugun-belli-oluyor-kredi-ve-mevduatlarla-ilgili-yeni-tahmin\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 bug\u00fcn belli oluyor! Kredi ve mevduatlarla ilgili yeni tahmin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Milliyet.com.tr\/\u00d6ZEL<\/strong> T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) y\u0131l\u0131n son faiz karar\u0131 i\u00e7in nefesler tutuldu. Banka bug\u00fcn saat 14.00\u2019te kritik faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. TCMB temmuz ay\u0131nda faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flarken gelinen s\u00fcre\u00e7te faizler %46.00\u2019dan %39.50\u2019ye kadar gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

EN SON 100 BAZ PUANLIK \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130ME G\u0130D\u0130LD\u0130 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Banka ekim ay\u0131ndaki son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 100 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek mevcut faiz seviyesini %40,50\u2019den %39.50\u2019ye \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

BORSADA HIZLI Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130\u015e D\u0130KKAT \u00c7EKT\u0130 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu hafta faiz indirimi beklentileriyle borsa 11.300 puan seviyelerinin \u00fczerini test ederken, dolar\/TL de 42.60 seviyelerinde y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Borsa, d\u00f6viz, mevduat yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ile kredi \u00e7ekecekler 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 merakla bekliyor.<\/p>\n

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MEVDUAT FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e SINIRLI KALDI <\/strong><\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indirimlerine gitse de bankalarda mevduat faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda bankalarda en y\u00fcksek mevduat faizi %48.00 seviyelerindeyken, bu hafta en y\u00fcksek oran %46.00 oldu. Bankalarda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oranlar %41.00-46.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

KRED\u0130 FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e DURDU <\/strong><\/p>\n

TCMB faiz indirimlerinin etkisiyle ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6steren kredi faizleri son d\u00f6nemde yatay seyrediyor. Yaz aylar\u0131 itibar\u0131yla h\u0131zlanan kredi faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gelinen s\u00fcre\u00e7te durdu. Faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in bankalarda temkinli duru\u015f s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n

\u015eu anda 1 milyon TL i\u00e7in 120 ay vadede bir konut kredisi \u00e7ekilmek istendi\u011finde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 %2.65-%2.83 seviyelerinde \u015fekilleniyor.
280 bin TL i\u00e7in 48 ay vadede bir ta\u015f\u0131t kredisi \u00e7ekilmek istendi\u011finde bankalarda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 %2.85-%3.10 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyrediyor.<\/p>\n

36 ay vadede 125 bin TL ihtiya\u00e7 kredisi \u00e7ekilmek istendi\u011finde ise faiz oran\u0131 %2.89\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak %3.50 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine kadar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Genel itibar\u0131yla kredi faizleri %3.00 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor.<\/p>\n

TCMB FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130RECEK M\u0130? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Peki Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan beklenti ne? Faizler d\u00fc\u015fecek mi? Faiz karar\u0131 borsay\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiler? Olas\u0131 bir indirimi durumunda kredi faizleri ve mevduat faizleri geriler mi? Konuyla ilgili t\u00fcm merak edilenleri milliyet.com.tr\u2019ye de\u011ferlendiren 3. G\u00f6z Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k Kurucusu Hikmet Baydar \u015fu ifadeleri kulland\u0131: \u201cEnflasyon a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce TCMB\u2019nin enflasyonla ilgili tedirginli\u011fini ve faiz indirim patikas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi ifadesini dikkate alarak 50-100 baz puan faiz indirilebilece\u011fi kanaatindeydik. Ancak son gelen \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon verisi ile beraber TCMB’nin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. O y\u00fczden 150-200 baz puana kadar faiz indirimi yapma imkan\u0131 var diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Zaten piyasa da beklentisini 100-150 baz puan civar\u0131na \u00e7ekmi\u015f durumdad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

FA\u0130Z KARARI BORSAYI NASIL ETK\u0130LER? <\/strong><\/p>\n

150 baz puan ve \u00fczeri faiz indirimi borsan\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine destek verebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kademeli olarak 11.520 puan seviyelerine kadar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

SON AYLARDA KRED\u0130 VE MEVDUAT FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eLER NEDEN SINIRLI KALDI? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Millyet.com.tr\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m daha \u00f6nceki yorumlar\u0131mda TCMB faiz indiriminin \u00f6zellikle kredilere yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 boyutta olmayabilece\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmi\u015ftim. Kredilerde faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc i\u00e7in mevduatta da faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ihtiya\u00e7 var. Ayr\u0131ca TCMB taraf\u0131ndan uygulanan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar ve BDDK taraf\u0131ndan verilen hedefler de burada s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 olabiliyor.<\/p>\n

\u2018MEVDUAT FA\u0130ZLER\u0130 D\u00dc\u015eMEDEN KRED\u0130 FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE \u00d6NEML\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eLER BEKLEMEMEK LAZIM\u2019 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Kaynak ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, \u015firketlerin krediye ula\u015f\u0131m zorluklar\u0131 devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece kredi faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Ancak \u015funu da unutmamak laz\u0131m ayl\u0131k mevduat faizlerinin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in kredi fonlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in ciddi bir maliyet olu\u015fturuyor. Bu riski g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcslerken kredi faizlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek marj\u0131 a\u00e7mak son derece tehlikeli olabilir. O y\u00fczden mevduat faizleri iyice d\u00fc\u015fmeden kredi faizlerinde \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler beklememek laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n

KRED\u0130 VE MEVDUAT FA\u0130ZLER\u0130 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N YEN\u0130 TAHM\u0130N <\/strong><\/p>\n

TCMB faiz indirimi mevduat faizlerinde benzer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mevduat faizlerinin reel getirisi y\u00fcksek. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek reel getiriyi %2.18 ile mevduat faizi sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O y\u00fczden burada TCMB faiz indirimine paralel bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n

MEVDUAT FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE ASIL D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e \u0130\u00c7\u0130N TAR\u0130H VER\u0130LD\u0130 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Uzun vadeli kredi faizlerinin zaten enflasyona g\u00f6re \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 burada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r. O y\u00fczden kredi faizlerinde \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yoruz. Mevcut kredi faizlerine g\u00f6re en fazla 50 baz puan civar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6rebiliriz. Y\u0131l sonu nedeniyle mevduat yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u015fu d\u00f6nemde mevduat faizlerinde as\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ocak ay\u0131nda olma ihtimali de bir hayli fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Mevduat faizlerinde TCMB faiz indirimine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak %2.20 civar\u0131nda faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olabilir. Konut kredisi faizleri %2.70 seviyelerine gelebilir. \u0130htiya\u00e7 kredisi faizlerinde ise %3.5 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 veren banka kalmaz diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Genel itibar\u0131yla bankalarda ihtiya\u00e7 kredisi faizleri ayl\u0131k %3.00 seviyelerinin alt\u0131na gelebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0http:\/\/www.milliyet.com.tr\/ekonomi\/merkez-bankasi-faiz-karari-bugun-belli-oluyor-kredi-ve-mevduatlarla-ilgili-yeni-tahmin-7499826<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Borsa, dolar, mevduat yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ve kredi \u00e7ekecekler Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131na odakland\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n son faiz karar\u0131 bug\u00fcn saat 14.00\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. TCMB faiz indirimlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de son d\u00f6nemde kredi ve mevduat faizlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler resmen durdu. Peki Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indirecek mi? Kredi ve mevduat faizleri daha da d\u00fc\u015fer mi? \u0130\u015fte beklentiler…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":152838,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[545,1690,41,1039,9194],"class_list":["post-152837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-banka","tag-dusus","tag-faiz","tag-kredi","tag-kredi-faizleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=152837"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152837\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":152840,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/152837\/revisions\/152840"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=152837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=152837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}