{"id":178462,"date":"2026-02-08T09:06:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T09:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/?p=178462"},"modified":"2026-02-08T09:06:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T09:06:11","slug":"beklenen-istanbul-depremi-icin-senaryo-netlesiyor-prof-dr-bektas-acikladi-fay-nerede-kirilir-sarsinti-nerede-katlanir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/2026\/02\/08\/beklenen-istanbul-depremi-icin-senaryo-netlesiyor-prof-dr-bektas-acikladi-fay-nerede-kirilir-sarsinti-nerede-katlanir\/","title":{"rendered":"Beklenen \u0130stanbul depremi i\u00e7in senaryo netle\u015fiyor! Prof. Dr. Bekta\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131: Fay nerede k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r, sars\u0131nt\u0131 nerede katlan\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130stanbul\u2019un alt\u0131ndaki sessiz gerilim, art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca ‘ne zaman’ sorusuyla de\u011fil, ‘nas\u0131l’ sorusuyla da tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, Marmara Denizi\u2019nin karanl\u0131k derinliklerinde uzanan fay hatlar\u0131, tek par\u00e7a bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan ziyade, ba\u015flay\u0131p durabilen, y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebilen ve etkisi katlanarak b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilen bir senaryoya i\u015faret ediyor. Son de\u011ferlendirmeler, beklenen \u0130stanbul depreminin rastlant\u0131sal de\u011fil, belirli jeolojik e\u015fiklerle s\u0131n\u0131rlanan, baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde durdurulabilen ama baz\u0131 semtlerde etkisi katbekat artabilen bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olabilece\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

Jeoloji uzman\u0131 Osman Bekta\u015f\u2019\u0131n son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, bu karma\u015f\u0131k tabloyu daha net okumam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacak cinsten. Bekta\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re mesele yaln\u0131zca depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011fil, k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n nerede ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, hangi jeolojik engellerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve en \u00f6nemlisi yerle\u015fim alanlar\u0131n\u0131n bu sars\u0131nt\u0131ya nas\u0131l tepki verece\u011fi. Baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde fay k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durabilirken, baz\u0131 il\u00e7elerde ayn\u0131 deprem \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 hissedilebilir.<\/p>\n

BEKLENEN \u0130STANBUL DEPREMI \u0130\u00c7\u0130N SENARYO NETLE\u015e\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Bekta\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re, Orta Marmara S\u0131rt\u0131\u2019ndaki ince ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan kabuk yap\u0131s\u0131, s\u0131\u011f bir depremsellikle k\u0131r\u0131lmaya son derece elveri\u015fli. Ancak do\u011fuda yer alan \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k \u00c7ukuru, sahip oldu\u011fu termal bariyer nedeniyle bu k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 durdurabilecek bir e\u015fik niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bekta\u015f, bu durumun 2025\u2019te Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda meydana gelen depremin Kumburgaz \u00c7ukuru\u2019nda durmas\u0131na benzer bir tablo olu\u015fturabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

‘B\u00dcY\u00dcKL\u00dcK K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcK SANILMASIN’ UYARISI <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bekta\u015f’a g\u00f6re, olas\u0131 depremin M6,2 \u2013 M6,4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ihtimali bulunsa da, tehlikenin boyutu bununla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle Avc\u0131lar hatt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ‘basen etkisi’ ve zemin b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi, sismik dalgalar\u0131n etkisini M7 seviyesinde hissedilecek kadar art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

ASIL YIKAN NE? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bekta\u015f, kamuoyunda s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen hayati noktay\u0131 \u015fu s\u00f6zlerle hat\u0131rlatt\u0131: “Y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131 belirleyen depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011fil, zeminin sars\u0131nt\u0131ya verdi\u011fi tepkidir.” Bekta\u015f’a g\u00f6re bu nedenle \u0130stanbul\u2019da risk, yaln\u0131zca fay\u0131n nerede k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan de\u011fil, hangi zeminin nas\u0131l davranaca\u011f\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Osman Bekta\u015f’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle;<\/p>\n

“Orta Marmara S\u0131rt\u0131’ndaki ince ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan kabuk, s\u0131\u011f bir depremsellikle k\u0131r\u0131labilir. Ancak do\u011fudaki \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k \u00c7ukuru\u2019nun termal bariyeri, k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 durdurma potansiyeline sahip; t\u0131pk\u0131 2025 Silivri depreminin Kumburgaz \u00c7ukurunda\u00a0durmas\u0131 gibi. Depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc M6,2 – M6,4 seviyesinde kalsa dahi tehlike b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00d6zellikle Avc\u0131lar hatt\u0131ndaki “basen etkisi” ve zemin b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi, sismik dalgalar\u0131n \u015fiddetini M7 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Unutmayal\u0131m; sars\u0131nt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011fil, zeminin buna verdi\u011fi tepki y\u0131kar.”<\/p>\n

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Kaynak :\u00a0http:\/\/www.milliyet.com.tr\/gundem\/beklenen-istanbul-depremi-icin-senaryo-netlesiyor-prof-dr-bektas-acikladi-fay-nerede-kirilir-sarsinti-nerede-katlanir-7534597<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Beklenen \u0130stanbul depremine ili\u015fkin yeni ve dikkat \u00e7eken bir de\u011ferlendirme geldi. Prof. Dr. Osman Bekta\u015f, Marmara Denizi alt\u0131ndaki fay yap\u0131s\u0131na dair senaryonun giderek netle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek, olas\u0131 depremin nas\u0131l geli\u015febilece\u011fine dair kritik uyar\u0131larda bulundu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":178463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6955,7406,1510],"class_list":["post-178462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guncel","tag-depremin","tag-etkisi","tag-zemin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=178462"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178462\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":178465,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178462\/revisions\/178465"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/178463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=178462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=178462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kamucalisani.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=178462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}